Considerably more head scab (FHB) has appeared this week across KY. The wet May we have just experienced has apparently provided for multiple infection periods and an extended window for symptom expression. A properly timed and sprayed fungicide application appears to have made a significant difference in FHB compared to where fields were not sprayed. But it would be unreasonable to think the benefit exceeds 50% control in any field. Modern fungicides simply are not that good against FHB, even when application and timing are ideal. Hopefully the benefit associated with spraying will carry over into DON levels at harvest. Control in fields that were sprayed too late (post infection) is poor (as expected).
Stagonospora leaf and glume blotch are also getting quite severe in many fields and I am starting to see a lot of leaf rust, even in fields that were sprayed (fungicide protection is wearing off). In some cases, leaf and glume blotch are quite severe in treated fields. While modern fungicides do an excellent job in managing leaf and glume blotch, fungicide must be applied before infection occurs. In many fields, applications timed properly for FHB control (early flowering), were probably too late to achieve good leaf and glume blotch control. The fact is, the main infection period for both diseases can be the same, but many times is not. This year, fields treated while the heads were emerging seem to show the best control of leaf and glume blotch.
Many (most?) years it is hot and dry by the time we get to the end of May. Not this year. Our wheat crop is steadily declining and will probably continue to do so until harvest maturity is reached.
Thursday, May 28, 2009
Friday, May 22, 2009
Soybean Market
Since the first week of March new-crop soybeans (November 2009 futures) have gained about $2.40 per bushel. There are a number of factors pushing soybeans higher. First, the value of the U.S. dollar relative to foreign currencies has been steadily declining since March, thereby making U.S. products more appealing to foreign nations. China has shown strong interest in purchasing U.S. old-crop soybeans. Second, production in South America has been shrinking, leaving fewer tons of available soybeans for export. This pushes importing countries to the U.S. to purchase soybeans. And third, soybean meal has had good export numbers, thereby increasing demand for soybean crushing. These three effects have taken previously average ending stocks and made them tight. Currently, the USDA has ending stocks at 130 million bushels or 80 million bushels fewer than the February report. Ending stocks are the lowest since the 2003-2004 crop year.
As for marketing new-crop soybeans producers should be selling in small increments into this price rally. However, the amount of grain prices should not exceed 30 to 40 percent of expected production. As of 5/22/09 November soybean futures are trading around $10.29 per bushel, a value that should exceed production costs. The carry between November and January is only 2 cents. This indicates to me that traders are expecting a small crop because they are not paying much to store. The carry between November and March is -6 cents. This negative carry indicates to me again that traders are expecting a small crop and want soybeans delivered in November. Food for thought; if traders are expecting a small crop and want soybeans delivered in November and they do not get all the want...then what do you think they will be willing to pay for soybeans in January or March? –probably a lot more. However, as we progress into the growing season and more information about the condition of the crop is revealed traders’ expectations can quickly change. If you have already sold up to 40 percent of your expected production I would hold tight on the other 60 percent. By Cory G. Walters, UK Ag Economist. cgwalters@uky.edu
As for marketing new-crop soybeans producers should be selling in small increments into this price rally. However, the amount of grain prices should not exceed 30 to 40 percent of expected production. As of 5/22/09 November soybean futures are trading around $10.29 per bushel, a value that should exceed production costs. The carry between November and January is only 2 cents. This indicates to me that traders are expecting a small crop because they are not paying much to store. The carry between November and March is -6 cents. This negative carry indicates to me again that traders are expecting a small crop and want soybeans delivered in November. Food for thought; if traders are expecting a small crop and want soybeans delivered in November and they do not get all the want...then what do you think they will be willing to pay for soybeans in January or March? –probably a lot more. However, as we progress into the growing season and more information about the condition of the crop is revealed traders’ expectations can quickly change. If you have already sold up to 40 percent of your expected production I would hold tight on the other 60 percent. By Cory G. Walters, UK Ag Economist. cgwalters@uky.edu
Monday, May 18, 2009
Corn Crop Planting Progress
According to the USDA's latest Crop Progress report, released today, 62 percent of the corn has been planted. This is less the same time last year when we were at 70 percent and less than the five-year average of 85 percent. For Kentucky, 45 percent of the corn has been planted compared to 39 percent this time last year and to 89 percent for the five-year average.
Planting delays due to excess moisture have helped push corn prices higher. Although producers are busy trying to get the crops into the ground, the current period, say the next two weeks, offers a great time to price some 09 corn for either December, March, or May delivery. Currently, the futures market is offering a 10 cent premium (the carry) for holding grain from December ($4.42) to March ($4.52) and 17 cent premium from December to May ($4.59). This futures carry along with potentially some positive basis change from December to March or May may make storage with fixing the futures price (short either the March or May) a good choice. If storage is not an option a short futures contract for December delivery would be the next best option. By Cory G. Walters, cgwalters@uky.edu
Planting delays due to excess moisture have helped push corn prices higher. Although producers are busy trying to get the crops into the ground, the current period, say the next two weeks, offers a great time to price some 09 corn for either December, March, or May delivery. Currently, the futures market is offering a 10 cent premium (the carry) for holding grain from December ($4.42) to March ($4.52) and 17 cent premium from December to May ($4.59). This futures carry along with potentially some positive basis change from December to March or May may make storage with fixing the futures price (short either the March or May) a good choice. If storage is not an option a short futures contract for December delivery would be the next best option. By Cory G. Walters, cgwalters@uky.edu
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Flooded Corn
Chad Lee, Extension Agronomist
Dept. of Plant and Soil Sciences, University of Kentucky
Across Kentucky there are some fields of corn that have been flooded.
Generally, if soil temperatures are above 70 degrees Fahrenheit for more than 24 hours, then corn will not survive. Usually the status of the corn crop will be known about two or three days after the flood event.
Much more details about flooded corn are given in AGR-193: Evaluating Flood Damage to Corn.
Some of this corn was stacked with both RR2 and LL traits. In these cases, the two best options are Select Max or paraquat plus linuron. The Select Max will provide better control, but will require no re-planting of corn for about 6 days. The paraquat + linuron will not provide as good of control, but will allow immediate re-planting of corn. AGR-6: Chemical Control of Weeds for Kentucky Grain Crops, page 22 contains more details about removing corn for a re-planting situation.
Dept. of Plant and Soil Sciences, University of Kentucky
Across Kentucky there are some fields of corn that have been flooded.
Generally, if soil temperatures are above 70 degrees Fahrenheit for more than 24 hours, then corn will not survive. Usually the status of the corn crop will be known about two or three days after the flood event.
Much more details about flooded corn are given in AGR-193: Evaluating Flood Damage to Corn.
Some of this corn was stacked with both RR2 and LL traits. In these cases, the two best options are Select Max or paraquat plus linuron. The Select Max will provide better control, but will require no re-planting of corn for about 6 days. The paraquat + linuron will not provide as good of control, but will allow immediate re-planting of corn. AGR-6: Chemical Control of Weeds for Kentucky Grain Crops, page 22 contains more details about removing corn for a re-planting situation.
Monday, May 11, 2009
Wheat Disease Update
Up to this point in the season, wheat diseases have been relatively minimal. Early-season soil-borne viruses were not a significant problem, and all indications are that arthropod (insect/mite) –vectored viruses will also be minor players this year. Other foliar fungal diseases, such as those that make up the leaf blotch complex; leaf, stripe, and stem rust; and powdery mildew have also been confined to the lower canopy or can barely be found in many fields. I attribute the minimal fungal disease picture to cooler than normal conditions this spring. In general, the excellent production practices of Kentucky’s wheat producers (planting date, fertility, variety selection, etc.) have also kept disease pressure low.
I believe the recent block of rain will change everything for the worst. I already see indications of this in my plots at Princeton. As we all know, it started to rain the last couple days of April and it has been wet, more or less, ever since. A few very windy days before the rain set in and then the rain, has significantly limited the number of acres that were treated with a fungicide. Fortunately, some farmers were able to arrange for aerial applications in some fields, but ground applications were greatly reduced compared to normal. The bottom line is that many fields are completely unprotected, and many that did get sprayed were sprayed earlier or later than is desired for maximum protection from fungal diseases.
To make matters worse, disease models indicated that the Fusarium head blight (FHB; head scab) risk was high across most of the state during the wet period. Most wheat fields in the state were in some stage of flowering during the wet period. Flowering is the stage when wheat is most susceptible to infection by the fungus that causes FHB, Fusarium graminearum. So connecting the dots: moderate to high FHB risk (spore production)……limited fungicide applications….highly susceptible crop stage (flowering)…..conditions favoring spore release and infection (wet, cloudy, humid)…..and it is easy to see how FHB could be a serious problem this year, even in treated fields. I say even in treated fields, because it is well known that even the best foliar fungicides provide only suppression of FHB, not true control. When disease pressure is high, fungicides may help, but yield and grain quality can still be seriously impacted.
Over the last couple of days, I have received numerous queries asking if I thought spraying wheat that has finished flowering should be considered. My response was (and is) that no fungicides are labeled for applications this late and even if they were, they would not do much good. Fungicides targeted at FHB must be applied BEFORE infection occurs to be of any value; they do not have post-infection activity. Thus, if heads of non-sprayed wheat were infected by F. graminearum during the recent rainy weather, applications made now would not help significantly. Fungicides would most certainly afford some control of other fungal diseases, but if the crop is past flowering, I do not believe they can develop fast enough to severely impact yield. That is, they would have to reach damaging levels before the crop reaches the soft dough stage, and I do not believe this will happen.
The situation is different for the small number of fields that are still flowering. As long as the label restrictions can be met, there may still be some value in spraying crops that are at full bloom or earlier. Whatever is done, be sure to follow the pesticide label!
We will know the full extent of FHB damage in Kentucky by the end of May. Some farmers in the extreme southwest part of the state are just now beginning to see FHB symptoms.
I believe the recent block of rain will change everything for the worst. I already see indications of this in my plots at Princeton. As we all know, it started to rain the last couple days of April and it has been wet, more or less, ever since. A few very windy days before the rain set in and then the rain, has significantly limited the number of acres that were treated with a fungicide. Fortunately, some farmers were able to arrange for aerial applications in some fields, but ground applications were greatly reduced compared to normal. The bottom line is that many fields are completely unprotected, and many that did get sprayed were sprayed earlier or later than is desired for maximum protection from fungal diseases.
To make matters worse, disease models indicated that the Fusarium head blight (FHB; head scab) risk was high across most of the state during the wet period. Most wheat fields in the state were in some stage of flowering during the wet period. Flowering is the stage when wheat is most susceptible to infection by the fungus that causes FHB, Fusarium graminearum. So connecting the dots: moderate to high FHB risk (spore production)……limited fungicide applications….highly susceptible crop stage (flowering)…..conditions favoring spore release and infection (wet, cloudy, humid)…..and it is easy to see how FHB could be a serious problem this year, even in treated fields. I say even in treated fields, because it is well known that even the best foliar fungicides provide only suppression of FHB, not true control. When disease pressure is high, fungicides may help, but yield and grain quality can still be seriously impacted.
Over the last couple of days, I have received numerous queries asking if I thought spraying wheat that has finished flowering should be considered. My response was (and is) that no fungicides are labeled for applications this late and even if they were, they would not do much good. Fungicides targeted at FHB must be applied BEFORE infection occurs to be of any value; they do not have post-infection activity. Thus, if heads of non-sprayed wheat were infected by F. graminearum during the recent rainy weather, applications made now would not help significantly. Fungicides would most certainly afford some control of other fungal diseases, but if the crop is past flowering, I do not believe they can develop fast enough to severely impact yield. That is, they would have to reach damaging levels before the crop reaches the soft dough stage, and I do not believe this will happen.
The situation is different for the small number of fields that are still flowering. As long as the label restrictions can be met, there may still be some value in spraying crops that are at full bloom or earlier. Whatever is done, be sure to follow the pesticide label!
We will know the full extent of FHB damage in Kentucky by the end of May. Some farmers in the extreme southwest part of the state are just now beginning to see FHB symptoms.
Soybean Rust Update
This is the first year that soybean rust (SBR) has successfully overwintered in Alabama, Georgia and Louisiana, without a break in detection. Weather conditions have been favorable to highly favorable for SBR development in those states, plus Arkansas, Florida, and Mississippi for much of this spring. There has been some new SBR activity in Florida and disease incidence is increasing on Kudzu in positive sites in Louisiana, but there has been no spread to new Kudzu patches or to soybean to date. Specialists in many southern states are expecting SBR to begin spreading into new areas soon, provided conditions remain favorable for disease development.
Delayed planting of soybean in many states, due to wet conditions, may push crop maturity back a few weeks. This, plus the potential for earlier disease development due to successful overwintering in the mid-Gulf region, could increase the potential for SBR to cause more crop damage then we have seen to date. Of course, if conditions turn drier, this increased disease potential may translate into nothing. We all hope this is the case. In any event, it would be prudent to keep tabs on this developing situation.
Delayed planting of soybean in many states, due to wet conditions, may push crop maturity back a few weeks. This, plus the potential for earlier disease development due to successful overwintering in the mid-Gulf region, could increase the potential for SBR to cause more crop damage then we have seen to date. Of course, if conditions turn drier, this increased disease potential may translate into nothing. We all hope this is the case. In any event, it would be prudent to keep tabs on this developing situation.
Friday, May 8, 2009
Some things to consider when planting corn in May
Jim Herbek and Chad Lee, Extension Agronomists, University of Kentucky
The following was taken from the most recent Corn and Soybean Newsletter on corn planting dates.
Use a corn hybrid with the Bt trait for corn borer. University of Kentucky research shows a yield benefit and an economic benefit to Bt corn borer hybrids planted in May. The later the planting date, the greater the yield benefit for the Bt hybrid.
Possibly switch to an earlier-maturing hybrid. Based on calculations of growing degree days remaining in an average season, hybrids with relative maturities of 118-day (and less) will reach physiological maturity (black layer) before frost in west Kentucky even if planting is delayed until late May. For late May plantings in central and eastern Kentucky, hybrids of 116-day relative maturity or less are likely needed. If planting occurs in early to mid-June, then a switch to hybrids of 113 to 116-day relative maturities will likely be needed. For extremely late plantings (after mid-June), hybrids of 110 to 113-day relative maturities or less are needed.
Keep the seeding rates and row spacing the same. Two exceptions: if someone convinced you to try 38,000 seeds per acre, try it in a small area instead of a large field. Your odds of getting decent yields from late plantings are good, but your odds of getting excellent yields are not.
Keep the seeding rates and row spacing the same. Two exceptions: if someone convinced you to try 38,000 seeds per acre, try it in a small area instead of a large field. Your odds of getting decent yields from late plantings are good, but your odds of getting excellent yields are not.
If you have the ability to plant narrow rows or twin rows, the late planting date could make for some excellent comparisons. We know that going to narrow rows in late-planted soybeans improves yields. Perhaps the same could occur in corn. Some on-farm comparisons would be excellent. One caution here: setting up a really good comparison takes time, and when fields are suitable for planting again, you won't have much time.
For more information on corn planting date and hybrid options, refer to publication AGR-195: Replanting Options for Corn that includes a table on Kentucky location, planting date, and expected date to reach black layer (physiological maturity) for three hybrid maturities.
For more questions about corn planting dates, contact your local county extension agent.
The following was taken from the most recent Corn and Soybean Newsletter on corn planting dates.
Use a corn hybrid with the Bt trait for corn borer. University of Kentucky research shows a yield benefit and an economic benefit to Bt corn borer hybrids planted in May. The later the planting date, the greater the yield benefit for the Bt hybrid.
Possibly switch to an earlier-maturing hybrid. Based on calculations of growing degree days remaining in an average season, hybrids with relative maturities of 118-day (and less) will reach physiological maturity (black layer) before frost in west Kentucky even if planting is delayed until late May. For late May plantings in central and eastern Kentucky, hybrids of 116-day relative maturity or less are likely needed. If planting occurs in early to mid-June, then a switch to hybrids of 113 to 116-day relative maturities will likely be needed. For extremely late plantings (after mid-June), hybrids of 110 to 113-day relative maturities or less are needed.
Keep the seeding rates and row spacing the same. Two exceptions: if someone convinced you to try 38,000 seeds per acre, try it in a small area instead of a large field. Your odds of getting decent yields from late plantings are good, but your odds of getting excellent yields are not.
Keep the seeding rates and row spacing the same. Two exceptions: if someone convinced you to try 38,000 seeds per acre, try it in a small area instead of a large field. Your odds of getting decent yields from late plantings are good, but your odds of getting excellent yields are not.
If you have the ability to plant narrow rows or twin rows, the late planting date could make for some excellent comparisons. We know that going to narrow rows in late-planted soybeans improves yields. Perhaps the same could occur in corn. Some on-farm comparisons would be excellent. One caution here: setting up a really good comparison takes time, and when fields are suitable for planting again, you won't have much time.
For more information on corn planting date and hybrid options, refer to publication AGR-195: Replanting Options for Corn that includes a table on Kentucky location, planting date, and expected date to reach black layer (physiological maturity) for three hybrid maturities.
For more questions about corn planting dates, contact your local county extension agent.
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