Cory Walters and Greg Halich, Extension Ag Economists, University of Kentucky
The deadline to enroll in the ACRE program for the 2011/2012 marketing year is June 1. We are about to complete the second year with the ACRE program in Kentucky. ACRE payments were made for the 2009 wheat crop of about $95 per acre. The wheat payment was driven by lower state yields and a lower national average price. No other crops received an ACRE payment in 2009. For 2010 it is unlikely that ACRE payments will be paid for corn, soybeans, and wheat, due to the fact that prices have increased substantially for all three crops. However, with the current volatility in the market, unknown state yields, there exists a chance that ACRE payments could be made in 2011. The purpose of this article is to show expected price guarantees, where prices need to drop to trigger a payment, relationship between ACRE and the Counter-Cyclical program and probability of payments given current prices and unknown yields for the 2011/2012 marketing year.
The deadline to enroll in the ACRE program for the 2011/2012 marketing year is June 1. We are about to complete the second year with the ACRE program in Kentucky. ACRE payments were made for the 2009 wheat crop of about $95 per acre. The wheat payment was driven by lower state yields and a lower national average price. No other crops received an ACRE payment in 2009. For 2010 it is unlikely that ACRE payments will be paid for corn, soybeans, and wheat, due to the fact that prices have increased substantially for all three crops. However, with the current volatility in the market, unknown state yields, there exists a chance that ACRE payments could be made in 2011. The purpose of this article is to show expected price guarantees, where prices need to drop to trigger a payment, relationship between ACRE and the Counter-Cyclical program and probability of payments given current prices and unknown yields for the 2011/2012 marketing year.