June 30 NASS-USDA Acreage and Grain Stocks Reports

Today, June 30, 2009, the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture released its annual Acreage and Grain Stocks reports. These reports provide useful information about planted acreage and amounts of grain in inventory.

The acreage report indicates planted corn acreage is up one percent from 2008 to an estimated 87 million acres. Besides 2007 this is the largest planted acreage since 1946. Traders were expected either for corn acreage to stay the same or decrease, therefore, we may see an initial decrease in corn price. For Kentucky, planted corn acreage is up 10,000 acres to 1.22 million acres from 2008. Corn stocks are estimated to be up 6 percent from last year to 4.27 billion bushels.
For soybeans, U.S. producers have planted an estimated 77.5 million acres – a record and up 2 percent from 2008. This amount of planted acreage is less than trader expectations, which may positively affect prices. For Kentucky, planted soybean acreage is up 60,000 acres to 1.45 million acres from 2008. Soybean stocks are estimated to be down 12 percent from last year t o 597 million bushels.
For winter wheat, NASS estimates planted acreage at 43.4 million acres, six percent lower than 2008. Of which 8.4 million acres are Soft Red Winter. For Kentucky, planted winter wheat acreage was down 50,000 acres to 530,000 acres from 2008. All wheat stocks are estimated to be up 118 percent from last year to 667 million bushels.
Even with this information, corn, soybean, and wheat prices can still be influenced by a number of factors, especially yields. There is still a lot of the growing season left to put downward pressure on yields. You can reach Cory Walters at cgwalters@uky.edu.