Thursday, November 11, 2010

One of the Driest Years Ever in Kentucky

Tom Priddy, University of Kentucky Ag Weather Center

According to preliminary data, since August 1st through November 9, the state has only received 6.10 inches of rain, which is over 5 inches below normal. Some west and west-central locations are 9 to 10 inches below normal for that time period.

Here's the latest map of US Drought Monitor for Kentucky: http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/DM_state.htm?KY,MW

Unless Kentucky receives some rain before the end of the month, this August 1 through November 9 is the second driest on record (over 110 years)...surpassed only by 1953 with 5.17 inches. (See driest Aug-Nov 10 years below). Notice some very important dry years in the list, such as 1930 (the granddaddy of droughts) and recently 2008, 1998 & 1999 in the top ten list.

RankValue*Year
1 5.17 1953
2 6.62 1904
3 7.11 1908
4 7.24 2008
5 7.28 1963
6 7.29 1939
7 7.54 1943
8 7.93 1998
9 7.95 1930
10 8.43 1999
* Value is total rainfall (inches) between August and November.

Two rainfall events are in the forecast...Saturday, November 13, 2010 and again late Monday/Tuesday. The latest models indicate the Saturday event is weak and falling apart. Tuesday's event looks very promising. Also, the winter outlook is calling for above normal rainfall for Kentucky: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=02

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