Late Dry Weather is Hurting Corn and Soybean Yields

Chad Lee, Extension Agronomist, University of Kentucky

The USDA NASS lowered their estimates for Kentucky corn yields by 10 bushels per acre and soybean yields by 2 percent in their latest report. The negative numbers reflect calls and comments we are receiving from producers across the state.

In August, most of our corn and soybean fields looked great. The foliage was lush, canopies were closed and the crop looked to be in excellent condition. Now, farmers are getting surprised about low yields in some fields. Just to clarify, these reports do not reflect all fields. There are some really good yields being reported. But, there are some really bad yields as well and these fields were the surprise. I think the biggest contributor to these bad surprises is the weather. Most of Kentucky was wet early and dry late. The wet weather encouraged shallow root systems. The dry weather late penalized crops with shallow roots.

Drought Expanding Across Kentucky - and Midwest

Chad Lee, Extension Agronomist, University of Kentucky

The dry weather is expanding across the state according to the drought monitor posted on Aug. 16, 2011. About 50 percent of the state - and 90 percent of the grain crops area - fall into the "Abnormally Dry" category. The map from a week earlier estimated that about 17 percent of the state was in the same category. Similar trends can be seen across the Midwest as well.

One of the Driest Years Ever in Kentucky

Tom Priddy, University of Kentucky Ag Weather Center

According to preliminary data, since August 1st through November 9, the state has only received 6.10 inches of rain, which is over 5 inches below normal. Some west and west-central locations are 9 to 10 inches below normal for that time period.

Here's the latest map of US Drought Monitor for Kentucky: http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/DM_state.htm?KY,MW

Unless Kentucky receives some rain before the end of the month, this August 1 through November 9 is the second driest on record (over 110 years)...surpassed only by 1953 with 5.17 inches. (See driest Aug-Nov 10 years below). Notice some very important dry years in the list, such as 1930 (the granddaddy of droughts) and recently 2008, 1998 & 1999 in the top ten list.

Rank	Value*	Year
1	5.17	1953
2	6.62	1904
3	7.11	1908
4	7.24	2008
5	7.28	1963
6	7.29	1939
7	7.54	1943
8	7.93	1998
9	7.95	1930
10	8.43	1999

* Value is total rainfall (inches) between August and November.

Two rainfall events are in the forecast...Saturday, November 13, 2010 and again late Monday/Tuesday. The latest models indicate the Saturday event is weak and falling apart. Tuesday's event looks very promising. Also, the winter outlook is calling for above normal rainfall for Kentucky: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=02

Drought Expands Across Kentucky

Tom Priddy, University of Kentucky Ag Weather Center

Drought conditions continued to expand and deepen this past week across the
Bluegrass state. Get the latest update and webcast concerning these dry
conditions
in the state at the below listed UKAWC link:

Kentucky Climate Update:
http://wwwagwx.ca.uky.edu/weather_presentation.shtml

And, expanded drought info on UKAWC's Drought page, at:
http://wwwagwx.ca.uky.edu/drought.html