2017 Revenue Protection Insurance Projected Prices for Corn and Soybeans and Safety-Net Decisions

Todd Davis, Extension Economist, University of Kentucky
The projected prices for Revenue Protection (RP) crop insurance is established using the December 2017 corn and November 2017 soybeans futures contracts closing prices for the month of February.

Figure 1. 

2017 and Previous Years Corn Revenue Guarantee 

($/Acre) Compared to Total Variable Costs (Red line) 

and Total Variable Costs plus Rent (Black Line) at a 

150 bushel/Acre APH Yield

The 2017 projected prices for corn and soybeans are $3.96 and $10.19 per bushel, respectively. The

revenue guarantee provided by RP insurance for varying coverage levels are compared to the budgeted cost of production and the cost of production plus cash rent to analyze the risk protection provided by RP insurance.

The rainbow of colored columns in Figure 1 and Figure 2 represent the RP insurance revenue guarantees provided for the 2013 (dark blue), 2014 (dark red), 2015 (green), 2016 (orange), and 2017 (light blue) crop years. The multi-year comparison illustrates how the crop insurance safety net has declined over the last five years as ending stocks for corn and soybeans have rebuilt after the 2012 drought. The red line is the 2017 budgeted per acre input costs, and the black line is the input costs plus budgeted cash rent. The corn and soybean APH yields are 150 and 55 bushels/acre, respectively, for Figure 1 and Figure 2.

New Dicamba Products Receive Approval for Use in RR2Xtend Soybean

J.D. Green , Extension Weed Scientist, University of Kentucky

Two dicamba formulations, XtendiMax^TM (Monsanto) and Engenia^TM (BASF), received federal EPA approval in December for use with RoundupReady2Xtend soybean. In addition to federal registration, a pesticide must also be registered and approved within a state before it can be sold. The XtendiMax^TM product received state approval in early January for applications in Kentucky. The Engenia^TM product is still pending state approval, but is anticipated in the near future. These products can be applied before or immediately after planting Roundup Ready 2 Xtend Soybeans or as an in-crop application from emergence (cracking) up to and including the beginning bloom (R1 growth stage of soybeans). The RoundupReady2 Xtend soybean technology provides another tool for targeting weeds that have developed resistance to other herbicide chemistries, but should be combined with other herbicide options and weed management tools for best herbicide resistance management. Because of the chemical characteristics of dicamba, good stewardship by applicators will be required to lessen the potential for off-target movement and damage to sensitive crops and other plants.

Late Dry Weather is Hurting Corn and Soybean Yields

Chad Lee, Extension Agronomist, University of Kentucky

The USDA NASS lowered their estimates for Kentucky corn yields by 10 bushels per acre and soybean yields by 2 percent in their latest report. The negative numbers reflect calls and comments we are receiving from producers across the state.

In August, most of our corn and soybean fields looked great. The foliage was lush, canopies were closed and the crop looked to be in excellent condition. Now, farmers are getting surprised about low yields in some fields. Just to clarify, these reports do not reflect all fields. There are some really good yields being reported. But, there are some really bad yields as well and these fields were the surprise. I think the biggest contributor to these bad surprises is the weather. Most of Kentucky was wet early and dry late. The wet weather encouraged shallow root systems. The dry weather late penalized crops with shallow roots.

2016 UK Corn, Soybean & Tobacco Field Day

The 2016 UK Corn, Soybean & Tobacco Field Day will be held Thursday, July 28th at the UK Research and Education Center in Princeton, (1205 Hopkinsville St., Princeton, KY 42445). Registration will begin at 7:00 am (CDT) and the tours will begin at 7:50 am (CDT). The field day will conclude with lunch provided by the Kentucky Soybean Board & the Kentucky Corn Growers Association.

Field Day Topics Will Include:

• Soil Water, Crop & Remote Sensing Measurements for Irrigation Management

How to monitor and when to control the early abundance of thrips on soybeans fields?

Raul Villanueva, Extension Entomologist, University of Kentucky

Insect Description and Damage 
While monitoring an experimental soybean field in Princeton, I have not noticed major insect pest problems during the earlier stages of soybean growth, with the exception of thrips. Thrips are tiny, slender insects (less than 1/16 inch) with characteristic fringed or bristled wings; they have rasping and sucking mouth parts. During feeding, mouth parts scrape the epidermis of the soybean leaf (it can damage flower, bud, or fruit on other plant species) and then suck plant fluids. In addition to these plant feeding thrips, there are beneficial thrip species that prey upon small insects and spider mites. 

Dry Weather Likely Shaved Soybean Bushels

Chad Lee, Extension Professor and Agronomist, University of Kentucky

Seed fill may have been hurt by the hot, dry weather.

The wet weather early combined with cooler temperatures set us up for what should be an excellent corn crop. The drier weather recently likely hurt soybean yields. July 2015 was the wettest July on record for Kentucky with almost 9 inches of rain: link. July temperatures were essentially average.

The last week of August and first week of September had warmer weather (14 days with average temperatures of 78 to 80 F) and inadequate rainfall to keep up with the temperatures and crop demand link.

UK 2015 CORN, SOYBEAN & TOBACCO FIELD DAY

2014 UK Corn, Soybean & Tobacco Field Day

The 2015 UK Corn, Soybean & Tobacco Field Day will be held Thursday, July 30th at the UK Research and Education Center in Princeton, KY. Registration will begin at 7:30 am (CDT) and the tours will begin at 8:00 am (CDT).

Big Season for Green Stink Bugs?

Doug Johnson, Extension Entomologist, University of Kentucky.

If you’re not checking for stink bugs in your soybeans you should be. 2015 appears to be producing an extra large population of green stink bugs, at least in western Kentucky.  For example, as of July 10, 2015, a total of 2,184 stink bugs have been captured in a black light trap on the UK-REC in Princeton, Kentucky. That is more stink bugs than were captured in all of last year (2014) in TWO black light traps on the UK-REC (e.g. 121 + 695 = 816). In fact, more stink bugs were captured in the 2015 single trap week ending on June 26^th than in all of 2014). However one looks at it, that is a lot of stink bugs. In addition, you will notice a great deal of difference between the captures at the North Farm in Lexington –vs– The UK-REC in Princeton. This occurs almost every year, but is particularly apparent this year.

We have seen a decrease in capture since that high, but don’t let that fool you as the numbers will likely rise again. Black light traps only capture adult stink bugs. Because the bugs must be able to fly to the trap to be captured, and juveniles do not have wings, only adults are captured. Normally, we would expect to see three generations in each summer season. Sometimes this produces very distinct populations (See Figure 1.) but often the generations tend to show overlap with one another.

Stinkbug populatoins at UK-REC in 2013

Sampling for stink bugs may be done by sweep net or shake cloth. In Kentucky, most of our beans are in narrow rows so the sweep net is the tool most often used. For sweeping, use a 15” sweep net and make 25 sweeps. Then count the number of stink bugs present. Most of the stink bugs will be green but there may also be brown stink bugs. In addition, juvenile stink bugs may be multi-colored. You can tell them from the adults because they do not have wings. Additionally, you will likely see some brown stink bugs whose shoulders come to a very definite sharp point. These are spined-shoulder bugs and are predators. They will not harm the plants. With the exception of spined-shoulder bugs, count all stink bugs as the same.

Crops Damaged in Heavy Storms

Chad Lee, Extension Professor and Agronomist, University of Kentucky

Hail damage to corn in blister stage.
Credit: Tyler Reynolds, Farmer.

(More images added July 17, 2015) 

Heavy rains and winds occurred the July 13 and 14, 2015. Farmers, county agents and students submitted images of the damage that resulted. Each image contains a short caption to identify the issue. Several days are needed before we can fully determine crop recovery and the extent of the damage. More images will be added to this post as they are submitted.

Yellow Soybeans Need Sun

Chad Lee, Extension Professor and Agronomist, University of Kentucky

Numerous fields of soybeans appear yellow or bright green right now. The symptoms mimic nitrogen deficiency, but the plants are really starving for air to the roots and sun on the leaves. Everyone is thinking about applying some nitrogen to help make the plants greener. But what these plants really need is for sunshine to help partially dry the soils.

Considerations for Soybean (Re)Planting in July

Carrie Knott, Extension Agronomist-Princeton, University of Kentucky

Considerable rainfall has accumulated throughout most of Kentucky.  Since June 1 the average rainfall for the Commonwealth is more than 3 inches above normal, with almost 2 inches of that falling in the last 7 days.  There are areas of KY that have received 10 or more inches in the last 3 weeks. Given these conditions many producers must decide whether to plant and in some cases re-plant soybeans once fields dry. 

When considering whether to plant late or re-plant two things come to mind. 

Price Risk Management for Corn, Soybeans and Wheat

 Todd Davis, Extension Economist, University of Kentucky

The potential for farmers to lock-in substantial corn profits with a cash-forward contract has been limited so far this spring. Assuming the per bushel total variable cash costs plus per bushel cash rent for corn in Western Kentucky is $3.85/bushel, a cash-forward contract would not provide any cushion to cover fixed costs, service debt, provide for family living, and to fund future business growth.

Current Price Risk Management Alternatives for Corn and Soybeans.

Todd Davis, Extension Economist, University of Kentucky

Current Price Risk Management Alternatives for Corn and Soybeans It is not too early to use price risk management tools to protect some of the projected corn and soybean revenue for this year. Risk management alternatives include locking in a cash price using cash-forward contracts (CFC) on a conservative percentage of expected production. A CFC removes price risk but you may feel regret if cash prices at harvest are higher than the CFC price. Another alternative is to buy put options to place a price floor but still benefit from any potential increase in futures price from now until harvest.

Kentucky Intensive Soybean Management Workshops Approaching

Chad Lee, Extension Professor and Agronomist, University of Kentucky

Anyone looking at the 2015 growing season knows that the budgets will be tight. But, anyone who enjoys growing a crop still wants to maximize yield. How do we maximize yields and make a profit in 2015? We have two workshops scheduled to help you answer that question ... and others.

The Kentucky Intensive Soybean Management Workshops are scheduled for February 4, 2015 in Hopkinsville and February 5, 2015 in Elizabethtown. Contact the Kentucky Soybean Board at (800) BEAN-SOY or (800) 232-6769 to reserve your spot.

Your Kentucky Soybean Board is bringing in two national experts, and adding one more from home.

Shawn Conley is a Soybean Agronomist and he will identify what we absolutely need for yield in 2015 and an agronomic approach to making a profit.  He has been working with a group of scientists across the United States on high yield soybeans. In addition, he was one of the leaders on soybean seed treatment and inoculant research.

Some Resources for Grain Storage Bags

Sam McNeill, PE and Extension Agricultural Engineer, University of Kentucky

With the expected high yields, low prices, weak basis and clogged traffic at elevators, many producers are looking for temporary storage options. Grain storage bags or "silage bags" are one possible options. Below is a list of resources on grain storage bags. It is not intended to include all available resources, but contains information from a mix in public and private sectors to provide a balanced view. Field studies on these systems are not available for all locations but has been conducted in Arkansas, Mississippi and Texas, as noted. Numerous other items of interest were found by searching for “grain storage bags”, including popular press articles and You tube videos, but these were not included to keep the list manageable. Exclusion of companies who manufacturer, service and/or market similar handling equipment or systems was not intended.

Getting a lot of questions about these bugs.

Doug Johnson, Extension Plant Pathologist, University of Kentucky

Figure 1. Immature green stink bugs on soybean.

I have been getting lots of questions about the bugs shown in this photo. Can you identify them? Folks are seeing lots of them in soybean fields. This photo by Patty Lucas shows a nice assortment
of the nymph stage (immature) green stink bugs. It is quite common to see aggregates of these near the end of the season. They are generally noticed because they are near the tops of plants, and leaves are beginning to drop.

Soybean Sudden Death Syndrome Update

Don Hershman, Extension Plant Pathologist

Symptoms of sudden death syndrome.

There have been numerous reports across the state of soybean sudden death syndrome (SDS) showing up in certain fields since August. SDS, which can be a devastating disease, is caused by the soil fungus Fusarium virguliforme (Fv).  Fv is actually a soilborne fungus that attacks roots early in the season and later causes a root rot. Infection is favored by cool soils with good moisture; thus, this spring was perfect for infection in most full-season fields. As plants go into the reproductive stages, the causal fungus produces a plant toxin that causes above ground foliar symptoms of yellowing and tissue death between the veins (see below picture), and later defoliation. If the disease comes into the field during the early pod development stages, and enough of the field is impacted, SDS can result in almost total yield loss. This is, however, an extremely rare event in KY. More typically, the disease causes significant yield losses in spots in a field - usually the lowest portions where soil moisture is greatest - but the majority of the field has little to know yield impact.  That is, most plants either escape disease altogether or symptoms come in after mid to late -pod fill. Plants showing late symptoms will generally yield very well. Thus, the appearance of symptoms is not necessarily a good indicator of yield loss potential. Timing of symptoms is everything when it comes to SDS.

Something is Definitely Up with Fall Armyworm!!

Doug Johnson, Extension Entomologist, University of Kentucky

Something is most definitely up with armyworm (Mythimna unipuncta), fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) or both. I have received information from six counties in less than a week indicating the

Poor or No Soybean Nodules in Many Fields

Chad Lee, Extension Agronomist, University of Kentucky

A field with soybeans with nodules
and soybeans without nodules. 

Several soybeans have turned yellow in the past few weeks and further examination revealed little to no nodules. The problem has occurred with seed inoculated in the bag and seed inoculated at the farm. It has even occurred in cases where a 2x rate was applied at the farm. Several brands of inoculant have been indicated. It has occurred in fields all across the state. The problem has occurred in full season soybeans and in double-crop soybeans.

Watch for Mites in this Dry Weather!

Doug Johnson Extension Entomologist, University of Kentucky

At least one soybean field in the Jackson Purchase area has suffered from mite damage. The weather that we are now experiencing is what I would expect for mites to become a problem. There is no guarantee that mites will be a problem in any particular field, but dry (low humidity) weather and drought stressed plants increase the probability of a problem occurring.If you are in an area that has had sufficient rainfall you can probably ignore this warning.